How well do newly promoted sides usually start the season?

Having seen all three promoted sides go straight back down in successive seasons, Leeds United, Burnley and Sunderland fans will be feeling nervous about the start of 2025/26.

While all teams end up facing each other once at home and once away, fixture order does have significance. A winnable run of matches can lead to a positive start, some early momentum and a belief that avoiding relegation is achievable.

So let’s check out the first six Gameweeks of the last 10 Premier League campaigns, to firstly see if there’s a correlation between starting well and survival.

But it’s not just about beating the drop. Can we Fantasy managers expect a ‘honeymoon period’ from the new boys in the early weeks?

PROMOTED SIDES SINCE 2015/16

		GW 1-6 POINTS	FINAL POSITION	FINAL POINTS			GW 1-6 POINTS	FINAL POSITION	FINAL POINTS
24/25	Ipswich	4	19th	22	19/20	Sheffield Utd	8	9th	54
24/25	Leicester	3	18th	25	19/20	Norwich	6	20th	21
24/25	Southampton	1	20th	12	19/20	Aston Villa	4	17th	35
23/24	Burnley	1*	19th	24	18/19	Wolves	9	7th	57
23/24	Luton	1*	18th	26	18/19	Fulham	5	19th	26
23/24	Sheffield Utd	1	20th	16	18/19	Cardiff	2	18th	34
22/23	Fulham	8	10th	52	17/18	Newcastle	9	10th	44
22/23	Bournemouth	7	15th	39	17/18	Huddersfield	9	16th	37
22/23	Nott’m Forest	4	16th	38	17/18	Brighton	7	15th	40
21/22	Brentford	9	13th	46	16/17	Burnley	7	16th	40
21/22	Watford	7	19th	23	16/17	Hull	7	18th	34
21/22	Norwich	0	20th	22	16/17	Middlesbrough	5	19th	28
20/21	Leeds	10	9th	59	15/16	Watford	9	13th	45
20/21	West Brom	3	19th	26	15/16	Norwich	8	19th	34
20/21	Fulham	1	18th	28	15/16	Bournemouth	7	16th	42

*played one game fewer due to Gameweek 2 postponement

The table’s left-hand side looks a bit grim, doesn’t it? 10 of the latest 15 have been immediately relegated. In fact, none of 2023/24 or 2024/25’s bottom trio were able to reach 27 points.

Since 2020/21, we’ve seen Southampton, Sheffield United, Norwich City and West Bromwich Albion wait a long time for that elusive first victory.

The middle season (2022/23) was an exception – recent enough to offer faint hope to the latest lot.

All three survived, just like 2017/18, as Fulham sprinted out of the traps with three wins from seven outings. As for Bournemouth, they had to face Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool between Gameweeks 2 to 4, being thrashed on each occasion. They managed to stay up, too.

ABOVE: The 30 promoted teams since 2015/16, sorted by most to fewest points in Gameweeks 1 to 6

In general, if a team accumulates eight points in their initial six fixtures, they should be fine. Only Norwich from a decade ago found themselves tailing off.

And failing to get more than six points usually leads to relegation.

However, landing on exactly seven could go either way – a couple of clubs ended on 40 but Watford got to just 23.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR FPL?

The recent release of 2025/26’s schedule has Sunderland supporters optimistic of reaching this eight-point mark. Early encounters versus West Ham United (h), Burnley (a) and Brentford (h) has them top of our Fixture Ticker for Gameweeks 1 to 6, although the Black Cats finished 24 points below their promoted pals in last season’s Championship table.

But bear this in mind: a newly promoted side has not won a single game in the first six Gameweeks in the last two seasons. That’s despite Southampton being high up the ticker this time last year. Luton were similarly ranked well in 2023/24. There were a few draws for Leicester and Ipswich early last season, but not a meaningful points boost.

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THIS SEASON’S PROMOTED THREE CLUBS: FIRST SIX FIXTURES

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It’ll be a tough opening run for the Clarets this time, meeting Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Man City by Gameweek 6.

Meanwhile, Leeds began 2020/21 with consecutive 4-3 thrillers – a brave Anfield defeat, then a win over Fulham. This time, they’re mid-table in our Fixture Ticker. Kicking off at home to Everton could bring an initial buzz around key attacking assets.

Recent history, however, suggests they’re all up against it from the off.

The below graph from The Athletic perhaps sums up the widening chasm best – and suggests that even before the nadir of the last two seasons, the struggle to survive has been getting progressively harder: